Wednesday, December 9, 2020

Loans And Mortgage

Loans And Mortgage


Mortgage And Refinance Rates Today, Dec. 9

Posted: 09 Dec 2020 11:50 AM PST

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Today's mortgage and refinance rates 

Average mortgage rates edged lower again yesterday, bringing another fresh all-time low. And conventional loans started out this morning at 3.063% (3.063% APR) for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage. 

For a change, today starts off looking worse for mortgage rates. But, if hope of politicians reaching an agreement over a stimulus package grows, that could send those rates appreciably higher.

Find and lock a low rate (Dec 9th, 2020)

Current mortgage and refinance rates 

Program Mortgage Rate APR* Change
Conventional 30 year fixed 3.063% 3.063% Unchanged
Conventional 15 year fixed 2.75% 2.75% -0.25%
Conventional 5 year ARM 3% 2.743% Unchanged
30 year fixed FHA 2.938% 3.919% Unchanged
15 year fixed FHA 2.125% 3.065% Unchanged
5 year ARM FHA 2.5% 3.232% Unchanged
30 year fixed VA 2.813% 2.99% Unchanged
15 year fixed VA 2% 2.319% Unchanged
5 year ARM VA 2.5% 2.413% Unchanged
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions here.

Find and lock a low rate (Dec 9th, 2020)


COVID-19 mortgage updates: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. To see the latest on how coronavirus could impact your home loan, click here.

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

Yesterday's new all-time low (across both purchase mortgages and refinances) means those near to closing should probably lock now. Indeed, you may be tempted to do so, no matter how far off closing you are.

Because there's a strong possibility that mortgage rates could rise today — and perhaps over coming days. Politicians in Washington, D.C. are working toward a new stimulus package.

The greater the hope of their reaching an agreement, the more likely it is that we'll see mortgage rates rise, perhaps appreciably. However, I suspect any such increase will be temporary.

See "Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?" (below) for more details. Meanwhile, my personal rate lock recommendations are:

  • LOCK if closing in 7 days
  • LOCK if closing in 15 days
  • FLOAT if closing in 30 days
  • FLOAT if closing in 45 days
  • FLOAT if closing in 60 days

But with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So be guided by your gut and your personal tolerance for risk.


Market data affecting today's mortgage rates 

Here's the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with about the same time yesterday morning, were:

  • The yield on 10-year Treasurys rose to 0.95% from 0.90%. (Bad for mortgage rates) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields, though less so recently
  • Major stock indexes were higher on opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying shares they're often selling bonds, which pushes prices of those down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite happens when indexes are lower
  • Oil prices rose to $46.05 from $45.66 a barrel. (Neutral for mortgage rates* because energy prices play a large role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity.) 
  • Gold prices fell to $1,858 from $1,876 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it's better for rates when gold rises, and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
  • CNN Business Fear & Greed index — Moved up to 85 from 80 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) "Greedy" investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while "fearful" investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

*A change of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a fraction of 1%. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that's no longer the case. The Fed is now a huge player and some days can overwhelm investor sentiment.

So use markets only as a rough guide. They have to be exceptionally strong (rates are likely to rise) or weak (they could fall) to rely on them. But, with that caveat, so far they're looking worse for mortgage rates today.

Find and lock a low rate (Dec 9th, 2020)

Important notes on today's mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

  1. The Fed's ongoing interventions in the mortgage market (way over $1 trillion) should put continuing downward pressure on these rates. But it can't work miracles all the time. So expect short-term rises as well as falls. And read "For once, the Fed DOES affect mortgage rates. Here's why" if you want to understand this aspect of what's happening
  2. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy's doing well and down when it's in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
  3. Only "top-tier" borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you'll see advertised
  4. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the wider trend over time
  5. When rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
  6. Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases. But some types of refinances from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are currently appreciably higher following a regulatory change

So there's a lot going on here. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what's going to happen to mortgage rates in coming hours, days, weeks or months.

Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?

Today

With a new all-time low emerging yesterday, it would be no surprise if mortgage rates bounced a little higher today. Such a bump is common though far from invariable.

But the big risk of an appreciable rise comes from Capitol Hill. If politicians there manage to agree on a stimulus package in response to the pandemic, we might see a more appreciable increase in these rates.

Politicians have agreed a stopgap bill that extends the time before a government shutdown by one week: from this Friday evening to Dec. 18. But a more permanent solution is still required. And one of those might also push up mortgage rates.

Playing in the background are a couple of blasts from the past. Relations with China are currently under extra strain. And Brexit (Britain's withdrawal from its membership of the European Union) is about to reach a climactic point. Good news on either of those could edge rates up while bad might exert downward pressure.

But all these are minor considerations compared to the economic havoc that the pandemic is wreaking. It's that which makes me think that continuing falls are likely to continue to outweigh brief rises in mortgage rates for some months to come.

Recently

Over the last few months, the overall trend for mortgage rates has clearly been downward. And a new all-time low was set during each of the weeks ending Oct. 15 and 22, Nov. 5 and 19 and Dec. 3, according to Freddie Mac. Indeed, there have been 14 such weekly records so far this year.

However, note that Freddie's figures relate only to purchase mortgages and ignore refinances. And if you average out across both, rates have been consistently higher than the all-time low since a record set in early August — until yesterday when both combined set a record, according to Mortgage News Daily. The gap between the two has been widened by a controversial regulatory change.

Expert mortgage rate forecasts

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

And here are their current rates forecasts for the last quarter of 2020 (Q4/20) and the first three of 2021 (Q1/21, Q2/21 and Q3/21).

But note that Fannie's (released on Nov. 17) and the MBA's (also Nov. 17) are updated monthly. However, Freddie's are now published quarterly. And its latest was released on Oct. 14 so is beginning to look dated.

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages:

Forecaster Q4/20 Q1/21 Q2/21 Q3/21
Fannie Mae 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8%
Freddie Mac 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
MBA 2.9% 3.0% 3.0% 3.2%

So predictions vary considerably. You pays yer money …

And another forecast

On Dec. 2, the National Association of Realtors threw its hat into the forecasting ring. It said:

The forecast anticipates mortgage rates will begin slowly going up toward the last half of 2021, reaching 3.4% by the end of the year.

Find your lowest rate today

Some lenders have been spooked by the pandemic. And they're restricting their offerings to just the most vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.

But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the cash-out refinance, investment mortgage or jumbo loan you want. You just have to shop around more widely.

But, of course, you should be comparison shopping widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.

Verify your new rate (Dec 9th, 2020)


Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

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Is The FHA Streamline Refinance A Good Idea Or A Scam?

Posted: 08 Dec 2020 07:04 PM PST

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What is the FHA Streamline refinance?

An FHA Streamline Refinance is a simplified way for FHA borrowers to get lower rates and smaller monthly payments.

The catch is that not every FHA borrower qualifies — and sometimes you can do better refinancing with another loan program.

As always, you need to shop around for your best refinance deal.

That's especially true if a lender has contacted you about doing an FHA Streamline Refi. You should never take an unsolicited refinance offer at face value.

First, do your research to make sure you understand what the offer entails. Decide if a refinance is really worth it for you, and check in with other lenders to see if you can find a better deal elsewhere.

Verify your FHA Streamline Refinance eligibility (Dec 8th, 2020)


In this article (Skip to…)


About the FHA Streamline Refinance program

Maybe you found the FHA Streamline Refinance on your own, and you're wondering if it's a good idea.

Or maybe you were contacted by a lender offering ultra-low refinance rates and big monthly savings.

In this case, it's not uncommon to wonder if the FHA Streamline program is a scam.

While it might sound too good to be true, the FHA Streamline is a perfectly legit refinance program backed by the Federal Housing Administration. It can offer a simplified, low-doc application process and below-market rates.

But you have to be a qualified homeowner with a current FHA loan to use this program.

And you'll want to check all your options before using an FHA Streamline because there's a chance another refinance program might help you save more.

Here's how you can evaluate the FHA Streamline program and figure out if it's the right refinance loan for you.

Check your FHA refinance rates (Dec 8th, 2020)

Benefits of an FHA Streamline Refinance

An FHA Streamline is one of the easier refinance programs to qualify for, with minimum documentation and no home appraisal required.

If you have a current FHA loan, and you've been making full and timely mortgage payments, you may well qualify for an FHA Streamline Refinance.

  • You must have an existing FHA-backed mortgage
  • You must have a history of on-time payments
  • You must wait at least 210 days after buying the home or refinancing to use the FHA Streamline
  • There needs to be a clear monetary benefit for the new loan — called a 'Net Tangible Benefit' — to be eligible

These FHA Streamline requirements mostly apply to your existing mortgage.

When it comes to borrower requirements, FHA is pretty lenient.

  • The lender does not have to verify your income or employment
  • The lender does not have to verify your credit score or check your credit report (though some may do so anyway)
  • A home appraisal is not required

Because there are so few documents required, an FHA Streamline loan may close faster than a traditional refinance. And you're likely to save money on closing costs because you won't have to pay for a new home appraisal.

Verify your FHA Streamline Refinance eligibility (Dec 8th, 2020)

When is the FHA Streamline a good idea?

The simplest answer is that if an FHA Streamline Refinance can significantly lower your interest rate and monthly payment, it's probably a good idea.

But of course, refinancing is never quite that easy. There are many different ways you can look at the cost vs. benefit of a mortgage refinance.

Here are a few questions to help you evaluate your current FHA loan, your potential new loan, and your savings opportunities via the FHA Streamline or another refi program.

How much interest can I save?

How much you save depends on your current interest rate and your new one. You new rate will vary depending on the market and the lender you decide to work with.

Given that mortgage rates today are at or near record lows, it's at least worthwhile to see what rate might be available in your situation.

To get the best deal available, make sure to shop around with a few different mortgage lenders. Rates can vary a lot from one company to the next, so you wont always get a lower rate from your current lender (or the one that sent you a flyer or email offering big savings).

The only way to know which lender has the best FHA Streamline rates is to apply with at least 3-5 and pick your lowest offer.

Does a lower rate make refinancing worthwhile?

A lower rate doesn't always make refinancing worthwhile.

You want to see how many months it will take before loan savings 'break even' with your closing costs. If you'll stay in the home past the break-even point, you'll start seeing real savings.

You should also watch out for lenders that define "savings" as the difference between your new payment and your old one.

Look out for lenders that define "savings" as the difference between your new payment and your old one. It's possible to lower your monthly payment but increase your long-term cost.

Remember that refinancing starts your loan over. So it's often possible to lower your monthly mortgage payments but actually increase your overall cost, because you're spreading the loan balance and interest payments over a new 30 year term.

In addition, there might be other reasons to refinance besides a lower rate and monthly payment.

For example, FHA allows refinancing from an adjustable-rate mortgage to a fixed-rate mortgage under the Net Tangible Benefit rule.

So if your current FHA loan is an ARM and you want to secure fixed-rate financing at todays low rates, that may be possible via the FHA Streamline Refinance.

Verify your new rate (Dec 8th, 2020)

What happens to FHA mortgage insurance premiums?

Remember, FHA is not a lender. It's an insurance plan. To access the benefits of FHA financing, borrowers need to pay for mortgage insurance premium (MIP).

The FHA charges two kinds of mortgage insurance, both of which apply to FHA Streamline Refinance loans:

  • Upfront mortgage insurance premium (upfront MIP) is equal to 1.75% of the loan amount
  • Annual mortgage insurance premium (annual MIP) equal to 0.85% of the loan amount, broken into monthly installments

Refinancing via the FHA Streamline program will not cancel your mortgage insurance. But it may help you lower your MIP rate.

Homeowners who got an FHA loan between 2010 and 2015 may still be paying an annual MIP rate of 1.35%. In these cases, refinancing to a lower interest rate and lower MIP rate of 0.85% could yield significant monthly savings.

There are even cheaper rates when a Streamline Refinance is used to replace an FHA loan originated on or before June 1, 2009.

Homeowners with older FHA loans should look into refinancing with a conventional loan to get rid of MIP.

With older loans the upfront MIP is 0.01% ($10 for a $100,000 loan balance) while the annual fee is 0.55%.

That sounds like a big saving, but in practice borrowers with older FHA loans may do better with a different loan type.

That's because home prices across the country have risen substantially since 2009. Many borrowers with older FHA loans have at least 20% equity and can refinance without any mortgage insurance.

If you have at least 20% home equity, refinancing from an FHA loan to a conventional loan could eliminate your mortgage insurance altogether and help you save more in the long run.

Was your original FHA loan opened before June 3, 2013?

Prior to June 3, 2013, the FHA had an insurance cancellation policy that allowed borrowers to end MIP coverage in as little as five years. This could only happen if the loan balance had fallen to 78% of the original debt.

Now, the story is different. 

  • If you borrow with at least 10% down, FHA MIP can be canceled in 11 years
  • If you borrow with less than 10% down — as most FHA borrowers do — the annual MIP remains in place as long as the loan is outstanding

For those with a pre-2013 FHA loan, refinancing into a new FHA loan could saddle you with mortgage insurance that never goes away.

Instead of jumping into an FHA Streamline Refinance, look at all your options.

If you have at least 20% equity and 620 credit, you might be able to refinance directly into a conventional loan with no private mortgage insurance (PMI).

If you have strong credit but haven't quite reached 20% equity, you might still want to refinance into a conventional loan. PMI can be canceled once you do reach 20% equity — unlike FHA mortgage insurance, which can only be removed by refinancing.

Find the right refinance loan for you (Dec 8th, 2020)

Why does the FHA offer Streamline refinancing?

A low-doc refinance program with ultra-low mortgage rates might sound too good to be true. But actually, it's in the Federal Housing Administration's best interest to offer Streamline refinancing.

The FHA can readily favor lower rates because it's an insurance plan and not a lender. The agency has no incentive to keep borrowers in high-rate loans because it doesn't profit from the interest paid on FHA loans.

To the FHA, lower rates mean smaller monthly mortgage payments. Smaller payments are easier for borrowers to handle. And that means fewer claims against its mortgage insurance program.

By helping homeowners refinance into more affordable home loans, FHA is really protecting itself from having to pay private lenders for loans that have defaulted.

What are the downsides of an FHA Streamline Refinance?

There are several requirements that can make an FHA Streamline Refinance unattractive.

First, with the FHA Streamline program, you can refinance your existing FHA loan balance but no cash-out refinancing is allowed.

If you want cash and have at least 20% equity, look into the FHA cash-out program or non-FHA programs. The attraction of non-FHA programs is that with 20% equity you won't need mortgage insurance, a big money-saver.

Second, the FHA will not allow a Streamline Refinance unless it produces a Net Tangible Benefit. This is to protect borrowers against unscrupulous loan offers.

What are the downsides? You must have a good loan payment history; you must meet FHA's definition of "Net Tangible Benefit"; and no cash-out is allowed.

Such benefits can include a rate drop of at least 0.5%, a switch from adjustable- to fixed-rate financing, or a shorter loan term.

However, FHA guidelines can be complicated. For example, if you switch from an ARM to a fixed-rate loan, an increased monthly cost is allowed. 

In addition, your existing FHA loan must be current. The three most recent mortgage payments must have been paid in full and on time; at least 210 days must have passed since your current loan was originated; and you must have made at least six payments on your existing loan.

For details and specifics, speak with loan officers and compare FHA Streamline refinance offerings.

Today's FHA refinance rates

Mortgage interest rates are low across the board. That includes rates for FHA Streamline Refinancing.

Even though the FHA Streamline doesn't require credit approval, your rates will still vary from one lender to the next. So it pays to shop around for the best deal.

Compare FHA Streamline rates from a minimum of 3 lenders to make sure you're getting the lowest rate and monthly payment on your new loan.

Verify your new rate (Dec 8th, 2020)

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